Where the risk lies by 2050
Level of the highest hazard in each 250 m area by 2050: flooding, heat, wildfire, wind or ground movement.
Tropical nights a year in a typical building
Ciguñuela compared with Spain
- Tropical nights a year, 2050: 2 nightslower than 65 % of municipalities
- Average summer maximum, 2050: 33,0 °Chigher than 59 % of municipalities
- Flood-prone area (100-year): 0,0%lower than 80 % of municipalities
- Area burnt 2016-2026: 0,0%lower than 64 % of municipalities
- Water stress 2050 (0-5): 4,8higher than 60 % of municipalities
Position among the 8.217 municipalities: further right means more risk. These are figures for the municipality as a whole, the same for everyone; they may differ from those for the typical building. Compare with others →
What we found in Ciguñuela
It comes from matching each building with its neighbourhood, its street, the nearest watercourse and its surroundings.
How many homes are at high risk, today and in 2050
The 217 homes in Ciguñuela by the level of their building. Tap a hazard to see it on the map.
For the town council and for residents
For the town council and its technical staff
- Download the tables by area, neighbourhood, street and watercourse (Data tab) to cross-check them with urban planning.
For residents
- Look up your building: the free report gives its level for each hazard, and the Climate Note gives the full detail.
Ciguñuela compared with other municipalities
The same data for all 8.217 municipalities in Spain. Choose what to compare with: municipalities of a similar size, the province, the region or the whole of Spain.
Compared with the 5.066 municipalities with fewer than 1.000 inhabitants. The bar shows where Ciguñuela stands: further right means more risk.
| Indicator | Ciguñuela | Group median | Position |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tropical nights a year, today | 0 nights | 0 nights | lower than 66 % of them |
| Tropical nights a year, 2050 | 2 nights | 2 nights | lower than 55 % of them |
| Average summer maximum, 2050 | 33,0 °C | 32,4 °C | higher than 62 % of them |
| Night-time heat island | −0,4 °C | 0,0 °C | lower than 81 % of them |
| Flood-prone area (100-year) | 0,0% | 0,1% | lower than 76 % of them |
| Area burnt 2016-2026 | 0,0% | 0,0% | lower than 61 % of them |
| Water stress 2050 (0-5) | 4,8 | 4,6 | higher than 64 % of them |
| Maximum 50-year gust | 36 m/s | 31 m/s | higher than 95 % of them |
| Population aged 65 or over | 23% | 34% | lower than 88 % of them |
Compared with the 225 municipalities in Valladolid province. The bar shows where Ciguñuela stands: further right means more risk.
| Indicator | Ciguñuela | Group median | Position |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tropical nights a year, today | 0 nights | 0 nights | higher than 50 % of them |
| Tropical nights a year, 2050 | 2 nights | 2 nights | higher than 55 % of them |
| Average summer maximum, 2050 | 33,0 °C | 33,3 °C | lower than 73 % of them |
| Night-time heat island | −0,4 °C | −0,1 °C | lower than 89 % of them |
| Flood-prone area (100-year) | 0,0% | 1,5% | lower than 81 % of them |
| Area burnt 2016-2026 | 0,0% | 0,0% | lower than 53 % of them |
| Water stress 2050 (0-5) | 4,8 | 5,0 | lower than 82 % of them |
| Maximum 50-year gust | 36 m/s | 33 m/s | higher than 98 % of them |
| Population aged 65 or over | 23% | 35% | lower than 89 % of them |
Compared with the 2.298 municipalities in Castile and León. The bar shows where Ciguñuela stands: further right means more risk.
| Indicator | Ciguñuela | Group median | Position |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tropical nights a year, today | 0 nights | 0 nights | lower than 51 % of them |
| Tropical nights a year, 2050 | 2 nights | 1 nights | higher than 76 % of them |
| Average summer maximum, 2050 | 33,0 °C | 32,2 °C | higher than 75 % of them |
| Night-time heat island | −0,4 °C | 0,0 °C | lower than 82 % of them |
| Flood-prone area (100-year) | 0,0% | 0,2% | lower than 77 % of them |
| Area burnt 2016-2026 | 0,0% | 0,0% | lower than 60 % of them |
| Water stress 2050 (0-5) | 4,8 | 4,7 | higher than 61 % of them |
| Maximum 50-year gust | 36 m/s | 33 m/s | higher than 95 % of them |
| Population aged 65 or over | 23% | 38% | lower than 91 % of them |
Compared with the 8.217 municipalities in Spain. The bar shows where Ciguñuela stands: further right means more risk.
| Indicator | Ciguñuela | Group median | Position |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tropical nights a year, today | 0 nights | 0 nights | lower than 74 % of them |
| Tropical nights a year, 2050 | 2 nights | 8 nights | lower than 65 % of them |
| Average summer maximum, 2050 | 33,0 °C | 32,4 °C | higher than 59 % of them |
| Night-time heat island | −0,4 °C | 0,1 °C | lower than 85 % of them |
| Flood-prone area (100-year) | 0,0% | 0,6% | lower than 80 % of them |
| Area burnt 2016-2026 | 0,0% | 0,0% | lower than 64 % of them |
| Water stress 2050 (0-5) | 4,8 | 4,6 | higher than 60 % of them |
| Maximum 50-year gust | 36 m/s | 31 m/s | higher than 95 % of them |
| Population aged 65 or over | 23% | 28% | lower than 69 % of them |
Values for the municipality as a whole (median over built-up land). The position is the percentage of municipalities in the group with a lower value: it is not a probability of damage. 2050 = SSP3-7.0 scenario.
Neighbouring municipalities
- Robladillodetailed profile86 inhab. · 2 tropical nights in 2050 · 0,0 % flood-prone
- Zaratándetailed profile6.386 inhab. · 2 tropical nights in 2050 · 0,0 % flood-prone
- Wambadetailed profile289 inhab. · 2 tropical nights in 2050 · 0,0 % flood-prone
- Arroyo de la Encomiendadetailed profile22.800 inhab. · 2 tropical nights in 2050 · 11,3 % flood-prone
- Simancasdetailed profile5.533 inhab. · 2 tropical nights in 2050 · 18,0 % flood-prone
- Villanubladetailed profile2.903 inhab. · 2 tropical nights in 2050 · 0,0 % flood-prone
- Valladoliddetailed profile302.614 inhab. · 2 tropical nights in 2050 · 11,4 % flood-prone
- Villán de Tordesillasdetailed profile122 inhab. · 2 tropical nights in 2050 · 0,0 % flood-prone
Download the data
Semicolon-separated tables with a decimal comma, ready to open in a spreadsheet or a GIS (areas include longitude and latitude).
- zonas.csv · each 250 m area with at least 3 buildings: average score and % at high level for each hazard, today and 2050
- calles.csv · the 0 streets with at least 60 homes
- cauces.csv · rivers, gullies and irrigation channels: homes within 50 and 100 m and in a flood zone
- Municipality summary (in Spanish) and PDF report
What this is and what it is not. It is a guide-only analysis made with public data and models, with the same rules for every municipality. It does not replace official maps, a technical study or emergency plans. For your own building, look up its report.
How we did it
Building by building. We have scored the 275 Cadastre buildings in Ciguñuela with the same rules as each building’s report on Mi Riesgo Climático, from 0 to 100 for each hazard: low (up to 25), medium (up to 50), high (up to 75) and very high.
Aggregates only. To protect each owner, no individual building appears here: only 250 m areas with at least 3 buildings, and neighbourhoods and streets with at least 60 homes.
Wildfire and flooding. Wildfire counts proximity to woodland or scrubland of at least 100 ha (not urban parks or tree-lined streets). For flooding, besides the official flood zones, a building that was inside a real flood observed by satellite (Copernicus EMS, such as the 2024 DANA storm) is at least at high level.
2050. Average for 2041-2070 under an intermediate-to-high emissions scenario (SSP3-7.0). Tropical nights and heat change with the climate; flooding, wildfire, wind and ground movement are shown with current data when there is no projection.
Rivers and streams. Named watercourses from OpenStreetMap. We count the homes less than 50 and 100 m from the watercourse and, separately, how many of them are in an official flood zone (SNCZI). Being close does not mean they will flood, and having no official zone does not mean they cannot.
Neighbourhoods and streets. Neighbourhoods and districts from OpenStreetMap; streets according to the Cadastre address. The street heat index combines tropical nights in 2050 (35 %), heat island (30 %), lack of trees (20 %) and buildings from before 1980 (15 %).
Sources. Cadastre (buildings and addresses); ERA5 + CHELSA/CMIP6 MPI-ESM1-2-HR and AdapteCCa (tropical nights and temperature); Landsat 8/9 and MODIS (heat island); ESA WorldCover and EFFIS (wildfire); MITECO SNCZI (flood zones); JRC (coast); ERA5 + Global Wind Atlas (wind); Copernicus EGMS (ground movement); WRI Aqueduct (water); INE (population); OpenStreetMap, © contributors, ODbL (streets, neighbourhoods, rivers and facilities).