We have scored the climate risk of the 2.790 buildings in Los Navalucillos using Cadastre data, satellite imagery and climate projections, and added it up by area, street and watercourse. The clearest change comes at night: from 3 to 35 tropical nights a year by 2050.
Level of the highest hazard in each 250 m area by 2050: flooding, heat, wildfire, wind or ground movement.
Position among the 8.217 municipalities: further right means more risk. These are figures for the municipality as a whole, the same for everyone; they may differ from those for the typical building. Compare with others →
It comes from matching each building with its neighbourhood, its street, the nearest watercourse and its surroundings.
In a typical building in Los Navalucillos, nights when the temperature stays at or above 20 °C would rise from 3 a year (1991-2020) to about 35 by 2050. For this reason, 10 % of homes would be at a high or very high level.
Median of the buildings. Intermediate-to-high emissions scenario (SSP3-7.0).
These are 445 buildings right next to vegetation that can burn. Almost all are houses (444), on the edges of the town and in housing estates.
Proximity to woodland and to burnt areas (ESA WorldCover, EFFIS). It does not measure the state of the vegetation or any firebreaks.
Around homes with between 2 and 5 % tree cover, the surface in summer is 0,4 °C above the median for Los Navalucillos; with more than 40 % tree cover, 1,1 °C below. 7 homes are in surroundings with almost no trees.
Ground surface temperature (Landsat), not air temperature. More trees usually go with less asphalt and lower density: this is a correlation, not a measure of the effect of planting trees.
They were built before the first thermal insulation standard (1979). With 35 tropical nights a year by 2050, they will hold the most heat at night and have the most to gain from a retrofit.
Year of construction from the Cadastre.
The 2.298 homes in Los Navalucillos by the level of their building. Tap a hazard to see it on the map.
The same data for all 8.217 municipalities in Spain. Choose what to compare with: municipalities of a similar size, the province, the region or the whole of Spain.
Compared with the 1.826 municipalities with between 1.000 and 5.000 inhabitants. The bar shows where Los Navalucillos stands: further right means more risk.
| Indicator | Los Navalucillos | Group median | Position |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tropical nights a year, today | 3 nights | 5 nights | lower than 55 % of them |
| Tropical nights a year, 2050 | 37 nights | 34 nights | higher than 52 % of them |
| Average summer maximum, 2050 | 34,6 °C | 33,0 °C | higher than 62 % of them |
| Night-time heat island | 0,0 °C | 0,2 °C | lower than 66 % of them |
| Flood-prone area (100-year) | 0,3% | 1,1% | lower than 64 % of them |
| Area burnt 2016-2026 | 0,0% | 0,0% | lower than 67 % of them |
| Water stress 2050 (0-5) | 4,9 | 4,6 | higher than 60 % of them |
| Maximum 50-year gust | 34 m/s | 30 m/s | higher than 82 % of them |
| Ground movement | −0,8 mm/yr | −0,3 mm/yr | sinking faster than 78 % of them |
| Population aged 65 or over | 38% | 24% | higher than 95 % of them |
Compared with the 204 municipalities in Toledo province. The bar shows where Los Navalucillos stands: further right means more risk.
| Indicator | Los Navalucillos | Group median | Position |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tropical nights a year, today | 3 nights | 12 nights | lower than 99 % of them |
| Tropical nights a year, 2050 | 37 nights | 51 nights | lower than 98 % of them |
| Average summer maximum, 2050 | 34,6 °C | 36,8 °C | lower than 98 % of them |
| Night-time heat island | 0,0 °C | 0,2 °C | lower than 63 % of them |
| Flood-prone area (100-year) | 0,3% | 0,7% | lower than 56 % of them |
| Area burnt 2016-2026 | 0,0% | 0,0% | lower than 66 % of them |
| Water stress 2050 (0-5) | 4,9 | 5,0 | lower than 82 % of them |
| Maximum 50-year gust | 34 m/s | 31 m/s | higher than 90 % of them |
| Ground movement | −0,8 mm/yr | −0,2 mm/yr | sinking faster than 93 % of them |
| Population aged 65 or over | 38% | 24% | higher than 89 % of them |
Compared with the 921 municipalities in Castile-La Mancha. The bar shows where Los Navalucillos stands: further right means more risk.
| Indicator | Los Navalucillos | Group median | Position |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tropical nights a year, today | 3 nights | 1 nights | higher than 60 % of them |
| Tropical nights a year, 2050 | 37 nights | 23 nights | higher than 63 % of them |
| Average summer maximum, 2050 | 34,6 °C | 35,4 °C | lower than 65 % of them |
| Night-time heat island | 0,0 °C | 0,1 °C | lower than 55 % of them |
| Flood-prone area (100-year) | 0,3% | 0,7% | lower than 56 % of them |
| Area burnt 2016-2026 | 0,0% | 0,0% | lower than 61 % of them |
| Water stress 2050 (0-5) | 4,9 | 5,0 | lower than 67 % of them |
| Maximum 50-year gust | 34 m/s | 31 m/s | higher than 90 % of them |
| Ground movement | −0,8 mm/yr | −0,3 mm/yr | sinking faster than 91 % of them |
| Population aged 65 or over | 38% | 30% | higher than 74 % of them |
Compared with the 8.217 municipalities in Spain. The bar shows where Los Navalucillos stands: further right means more risk.
| Indicator | Los Navalucillos | Group median | Position |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tropical nights a year, today | 3 nights | 0 nights | higher than 64 % of them |
| Tropical nights a year, 2050 | 37 nights | 8 nights | higher than 68 % of them |
| Average summer maximum, 2050 | 34,6 °C | 32,4 °C | higher than 75 % of them |
| Night-time heat island | 0,0 °C | 0,1 °C | lower than 60 % of them |
| Flood-prone area (100-year) | 0,3% | 0,6% | lower than 53 % of them |
| Area burnt 2016-2026 | 0,0% | 0,0% | lower than 64 % of them |
| Water stress 2050 (0-5) | 4,9 | 4,6 | higher than 62 % of them |
| Maximum 50-year gust | 34 m/s | 31 m/s | higher than 79 % of them |
| Ground movement | −0,8 mm/yr | −0,4 mm/yr | sinking faster than 70 % of them |
| Population aged 65 or over | 38% | 28% | higher than 77 % of them |
Values for the municipality as a whole (median over built-up land). The position is the percentage of municipalities in the group with a lower value: it is not a probability of damage. 2050 = SSP3-7.0 scenario.
Semicolon-separated tables with a decimal comma, ready to open in a spreadsheet or a GIS (areas include longitude and latitude).
What this is and what it is not. It is a guide-only analysis made with public data and models, with the same rules for every municipality. It does not replace official maps, a technical study or emergency plans. For your own building, look up its report.
Building by building. We have scored the 2.790 Cadastre buildings in Los Navalucillos with the same rules as each building’s report on Mi Riesgo Climático, from 0 to 100 for each hazard: low (up to 25), medium (up to 50), high (up to 75) and very high.
Aggregates only. To protect each owner, no individual building appears here: only 250 m areas with at least 3 buildings, and neighbourhoods and streets with at least 60 homes.
Wildfire and flooding. Wildfire counts proximity to woodland or scrubland of at least 100 ha (not urban parks or tree-lined streets). For flooding, besides the official flood zones, a building that was inside a real flood observed by satellite (Copernicus EMS, such as the 2024 DANA storm) is at least at high level.
2050. Average for 2041-2070 under an intermediate-to-high emissions scenario (SSP3-7.0). Tropical nights and heat change with the climate; flooding, wildfire, wind and ground movement are shown with current data when there is no projection.
Rivers and streams. Named watercourses from OpenStreetMap. We count the homes less than 50 and 100 m from the watercourse and, separately, how many of them are in an official flood zone (SNCZI). Being close does not mean they will flood, and having no official zone does not mean they cannot.
Neighbourhoods and streets. Neighbourhoods and districts from OpenStreetMap; streets according to the Cadastre address. The street heat index combines tropical nights in 2050 (35 %), heat island (30 %), lack of trees (20 %) and buildings from before 1980 (15 %).
Sources. Cadastre (buildings and addresses); ERA5 + CHELSA/CMIP6 MPI-ESM1-2-HR and AdapteCCa (tropical nights and temperature); Landsat 8/9 and MODIS (heat island); ESA WorldCover and EFFIS (wildfire); MITECO SNCZI (flood zones); JRC (coast); ERA5 + Global Wind Atlas (wind); Copernicus EGMS (ground movement); WRI Aqueduct (water); INE (population); OpenStreetMap, © contributors, ODbL (streets, neighbourhoods, rivers and facilities).