We have scored the climate risk of the 10.876 buildings in San Javier using Cadastre data, satellite imagery and climate projections, and added it up by area, neighbourhood, street and watercourse. The clearest change comes at night: from 77 to 102 tropical nights a year by 2050.
Level of the highest hazard in each 250 m area by 2050: flooding, heat, wildfire, wind or ground movement.
Position among the 8.217 municipalities: further right means more risk. These are figures for the municipality as a whole, the same for everyone; they may differ from those for the typical building. Compare with others →
It comes from matching each building with its neighbourhood, its street, the nearest watercourse and its surroundings.
They are in the area that can flood once every 500 years according to the official maps (SNCZI); 4.979 of them are in the 100-year area.
According to the Ministry’s studies, this is an annual probability of 0,2 % (500 years) or 1 % (100 years), not “once every 500 years”: it can happen two years in a row. Small gullies are not always mapped.
That is 12 % of homes. The extreme sea level in a 100-year storm reaches 1,11 m today and 1,40 m by 2050.
Ground elevation at the building (IGN digital terrain model). Being low-lying does not mean it will flood: that depends on the beach, sea defences and drainage.
They are in the official 500-year flood zone or in a preferential flow zone. They are the first to review in an emergency plan: who is inside, how to get out and whether they use the ground floor.
OpenStreetMap location matched to the nearest Cadastre building.
By 2050, La Manga del Mar Menor would have about 114 tropical nights a year and El Mirador, 87. Altitude, closeness to the sea or a river, and trees make a big difference to heat within the same municipality.
Average of the buildings in each neighbourhood (OpenStreetMap).
In a typical building in San Javier, nights when the temperature stays at or above 20 °C would rise from 77 a year (1991-2020) to about 102 by 2050. For this reason, 100 % of homes would be at a high or very high level.
Median of the buildings. Intermediate-to-high emissions scenario (SSP3-7.0).
The 42.505 homes in San Javier by the level of their building. Tap a hazard to see it on the map.
The same data for all 8.217 municipalities in Spain. Choose what to compare with: municipalities of a similar size, the province, the region or the whole of Spain.
Compared with the 365 municipalities with between 20.000 and 100.000 inhabitants. The bar shows where San Javier stands: further right means more risk.
| Indicator | San Javier | Group median | Position |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tropical nights a year, today | 67 nights | 28 nights | higher than 88 % of them |
| Tropical nights a year, 2050 | 116 nights | 74 nights | higher than 84 % of them |
| Average summer maximum, 2050 | 31,4 °C | 32,0 °C | lower than 57 % of them |
| Night-time heat island | 0,3 °C | 0,7 °C | lower than 80 % of them |
| Flood-prone area (100-year) | 0,8% | 2,0% | lower than 64 % of them |
| Area burnt 2016-2026 | 0,0% | 0,0% | lower than 66 % of them |
| Water stress 2050 (0-5) | 5,0 | 4,9 | higher than 76 % of them |
| Maximum 50-year gust | 27 m/s | 29 m/s | lower than 72 % of them |
| Ground movement | −0,4 mm/yr | −0,7 mm/yr | sinking more slowly than 71 % of them |
| Population aged 65 or over | 16% | 19% | lower than 75 % of them |
Compared with the 45 municipalities in Murcia province. The bar shows where San Javier stands: further right means more risk.
| Indicator | San Javier | Group median | Position |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tropical nights a year, today | 67 nights | 35 nights | higher than 86 % of them |
| Tropical nights a year, 2050 | 116 nights | 90 nights | higher than 86 % of them |
| Average summer maximum, 2050 | 31,4 °C | 35,7 °C | lower than 88 % of them |
| Night-time heat island | 0,3 °C | 0,5 °C | lower than 74 % of them |
| Flood-prone area (100-year) | 0,8% | 1,6% | lower than 70 % of them |
| Area burnt 2016-2026 | 0,0% | 0,0% | lower than 62 % of them |
| Water stress 2050 (0-5) | 5,0 | 5,0 | higher than 50 % of them |
| Maximum 50-year gust | 27 m/s | 28 m/s | lower than 54 % of them |
| Ground movement | −0,4 mm/yr | 0,1 mm/yr | sinking faster than 67 % of them |
| Population aged 65 or over | 16% | 17% | lower than 62 % of them |
Compared with the 8.217 municipalities in Spain. The bar shows where San Javier stands: further right means more risk.
| Indicator | San Javier | Group median | Position |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tropical nights a year, today | 67 nights | 0 nights | higher than 99 % of them |
| Tropical nights a year, 2050 | 116 nights | 8 nights | higher than 98 % of them |
| Average summer maximum, 2050 | 31,4 °C | 32,4 °C | lower than 63 % of them |
| Night-time heat island | 0,3 °C | 0,1 °C | higher than 63 % of them |
| Flood-prone area (100-year) | 0,8% | 0,6% | higher than 53 % of them |
| Area burnt 2016-2026 | 0,0% | 0,0% | lower than 64 % of them |
| Water stress 2050 (0-5) | 5,0 | 4,6 | higher than 82 % of them |
| Maximum 50-year gust | 27 m/s | 31 m/s | lower than 80 % of them |
| Ground movement | −0,4 mm/yr | −0,4 mm/yr | sinking more slowly than 53 % of them |
| Population aged 65 or over | 16% | 28% | lower than 94 % of them |
Values for the municipality as a whole (median over built-up land). The position is the percentage of municipalities in the group with a lower value: it is not a probability of damage. 2050 = SSP3-7.0 scenario.
Semicolon-separated tables with a decimal comma, ready to open in a spreadsheet or a GIS (areas include longitude and latitude).
What this is and what it is not. It is a guide-only analysis made with public data and models, with the same rules for every municipality. It does not replace official maps, a technical study or emergency plans. For your own building, look up its report.
Building by building. We have scored the 10.876 Cadastre buildings in San Javier with the same rules as each building’s report on Mi Riesgo Climático, from 0 to 100 for each hazard: low (up to 25), medium (up to 50), high (up to 75) and very high.
Aggregates only. To protect each owner, no individual building appears here: only 250 m areas with at least 3 buildings, and neighbourhoods and streets with at least 60 homes.
Wildfire and flooding. Wildfire counts proximity to woodland or scrubland of at least 100 ha (not urban parks or tree-lined streets). For flooding, besides the official flood zones, a building that was inside a real flood observed by satellite (Copernicus EMS, such as the 2024 DANA storm) is at least at high level.
2050. Average for 2041-2070 under an intermediate-to-high emissions scenario (SSP3-7.0). Tropical nights and heat change with the climate; flooding, wildfire, wind and ground movement are shown with current data when there is no projection.
Rivers and streams. Named watercourses from OpenStreetMap. We count the homes less than 50 and 100 m from the watercourse and, separately, how many of them are in an official flood zone (SNCZI). Being close does not mean they will flood, and having no official zone does not mean they cannot.
Neighbourhoods and streets. Neighbourhoods and districts from OpenStreetMap; streets according to the Cadastre address. The street heat index combines tropical nights in 2050 (35 %), heat island (30 %), lack of trees (20 %) and buildings from before 1980 (15 %).
Sources. Cadastre (buildings and addresses); ERA5 + CHELSA/CMIP6 MPI-ESM1-2-HR and AdapteCCa (tropical nights and temperature); Landsat 8/9 and MODIS (heat island); ESA WorldCover and EFFIS (wildfire); MITECO SNCZI (flood zones); JRC (coast); ERA5 + Global Wind Atlas (wind); Copernicus EGMS (ground movement); WRI Aqueduct (water); INE (population); OpenStreetMap, © contributors, ODbL (streets, neighbourhoods, rivers and facilities).