We have scored the climate risk of the 319 buildings in Alfarnatejo using Cadastre data, satellite imagery and climate projections, and added it up by area, street and watercourse.
Level of the highest hazard in each 250 m area by 2050: flooding, heat, wildfire, wind or ground movement.
Position among the 8.217 municipalities: further right means more risk. These are figures for the municipality as a whole, the same for everyone; they may differ from those for the typical building. Compare with others →
It comes from matching each building with its neighbourhood, its street, the nearest watercourse and its surroundings.
These are 164 buildings right next to vegetation that can burn. Almost all are houses (164), on the edges of the town and in housing estates.
Proximity to woodland and to burnt areas (ESA WorldCover, EFFIS). It does not measure the state of the vegetation or any firebreaks.
In a typical building in Alfarnatejo, nights when the temperature stays at or above 20 °C would rise from 1 a year (1991-2020) to about 8 by 2050. For this reason, 15 % of homes would be at a high or very high level.
Median of the buildings. Intermediate-to-high emissions scenario (SSP3-7.0).
The 259 homes in Alfarnatejo by the level of their building. Tap a hazard to see it on the map.
The same data for all 8.217 municipalities in Spain. Choose what to compare with: municipalities of a similar size, the province, the region or the whole of Spain.
Compared with the 5.066 municipalities with fewer than 1.000 inhabitants. The bar shows where Alfarnatejo stands: further right means more risk.
| Indicator | Alfarnatejo | Group median | Position |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tropical nights a year, today | 2 nights | 0 nights | higher than 77 % of them |
| Tropical nights a year, 2050 | 25 nights | 2 nights | higher than 76 % of them |
| Average summer maximum, 2050 | 31,0 °C | 32,4 °C | lower than 68 % of them |
| Night-time heat island | 0,2 °C | 0,0 °C | higher than 66 % of them |
| Flood-prone area (100-year) | 0,0% | 0,1% | lower than 76 % of them |
| Area burnt 2016-2026 | 0,0% | 0,0% | lower than 61 % of them |
| Water stress 2050 (0-5) | 5,0 | 4,6 | higher than 83 % of them |
| Maximum 50-year gust | 32 m/s | 31 m/s | higher than 63 % of them |
| Population aged 65 or over | 30% | 34% | lower than 65 % of them |
Compared with the 103 municipalities in Málaga province. The bar shows where Alfarnatejo stands: further right means more risk.
| Indicator | Alfarnatejo | Group median | Position |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tropical nights a year, today | 2 nights | 19 nights | lower than 98 % of them |
| Tropical nights a year, 2050 | 25 nights | 55 nights | lower than 97 % of them |
| Average summer maximum, 2050 | 31,0 °C | 31,0 °C | higher than 50 % of them |
| Night-time heat island | 0,2 °C | 0,2 °C | lower than 51 % of them |
| Flood-prone area (100-year) | 0,0% | 0,1% | lower than 76 % of them |
| Area burnt 2016-2026 | 0,0% | 0,0% | lower than 70 % of them |
| Water stress 2050 (0-5) | 5,0 | 5,0 | higher than 50 % of them |
| Maximum 50-year gust | 32 m/s | 29 m/s | higher than 76 % of them |
| Population aged 65 or over | 30% | 23% | higher than 86 % of them |
Compared with the 786 municipalities in Andalusia. The bar shows where Alfarnatejo stands: further right means more risk.
| Indicator | Alfarnatejo | Group median | Position |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tropical nights a year, today | 2 nights | 17 nights | lower than 92 % of them |
| Tropical nights a year, 2050 | 25 nights | 49 nights | lower than 86 % of them |
| Average summer maximum, 2050 | 31,0 °C | 35,2 °C | lower than 84 % of them |
| Night-time heat island | 0,2 °C | 0,3 °C | lower than 60 % of them |
| Flood-prone area (100-year) | 0,0% | 0,8% | lower than 82 % of them |
| Area burnt 2016-2026 | 0,0% | 0,0% | lower than 67 % of them |
| Water stress 2050 (0-5) | 5,0 | 5,0 | higher than 59 % of them |
| Maximum 50-year gust | 32 m/s | 31 m/s | higher than 62 % of them |
| Population aged 65 or over | 30% | 22% | higher than 87 % of them |
Compared with the 8.217 municipalities in Spain. The bar shows where Alfarnatejo stands: further right means more risk.
| Indicator | Alfarnatejo | Group median | Position |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tropical nights a year, today | 2 nights | 0 nights | higher than 61 % of them |
| Tropical nights a year, 2050 | 25 nights | 8 nights | higher than 61 % of them |
| Average summer maximum, 2050 | 31,0 °C | 32,4 °C | lower than 67 % of them |
| Night-time heat island | 0,2 °C | 0,1 °C | higher than 56 % of them |
| Flood-prone area (100-year) | 0,0% | 0,6% | lower than 80 % of them |
| Area burnt 2016-2026 | 0,0% | 0,0% | lower than 64 % of them |
| Water stress 2050 (0-5) | 5,0 | 4,6 | higher than 82 % of them |
| Maximum 50-year gust | 32 m/s | 31 m/s | higher than 68 % of them |
| Population aged 65 or over | 30% | 28% | higher than 55 % of them |
Values for the municipality as a whole (median over built-up land). The position is the percentage of municipalities in the group with a lower value: it is not a probability of damage. 2050 = SSP3-7.0 scenario.
Semicolon-separated tables with a decimal comma, ready to open in a spreadsheet or a GIS (areas include longitude and latitude).
What this is and what it is not. It is a guide-only analysis made with public data and models, with the same rules for every municipality. It does not replace official maps, a technical study or emergency plans. For your own building, look up its report.
Building by building. We have scored the 319 Cadastre buildings in Alfarnatejo with the same rules as each building’s report on Mi Riesgo Climático, from 0 to 100 for each hazard: low (up to 25), medium (up to 50), high (up to 75) and very high.
Aggregates only. To protect each owner, no individual building appears here: only 250 m areas with at least 3 buildings, and neighbourhoods and streets with at least 60 homes.
Wildfire and flooding. Wildfire counts proximity to woodland or scrubland of at least 100 ha (not urban parks or tree-lined streets). For flooding, besides the official flood zones, a building that was inside a real flood observed by satellite (Copernicus EMS, such as the 2024 DANA storm) is at least at high level.
2050. Average for 2041-2070 under an intermediate-to-high emissions scenario (SSP3-7.0). Tropical nights and heat change with the climate; flooding, wildfire, wind and ground movement are shown with current data when there is no projection.
Rivers and streams. Named watercourses from OpenStreetMap. We count the homes less than 50 and 100 m from the watercourse and, separately, how many of them are in an official flood zone (SNCZI). Being close does not mean they will flood, and having no official zone does not mean they cannot.
Neighbourhoods and streets. Neighbourhoods and districts from OpenStreetMap; streets according to the Cadastre address. The street heat index combines tropical nights in 2050 (35 %), heat island (30 %), lack of trees (20 %) and buildings from before 1980 (15 %).
Sources. Cadastre (buildings and addresses); ERA5 + CHELSA/CMIP6 MPI-ESM1-2-HR and AdapteCCa (tropical nights and temperature); Landsat 8/9 and MODIS (heat island); ESA WorldCover and EFFIS (wildfire); MITECO SNCZI (flood zones); JRC (coast); ERA5 + Global Wind Atlas (wind); Copernicus EGMS (ground movement); WRI Aqueduct (water); INE (population); OpenStreetMap, © contributors, ODbL (streets, neighbourhoods, rivers and facilities).