Where the risk lies by 2050
Level of the highest hazard in each 250 m area by 2050: flooding, heat, wildfire, wind or ground movement.
Tropical nights a year in a typical building
Toral de los Guzmanes compared with Spain
- Tropical nights a year, 2050: 1 nightslower than 76 % of municipalities
- Average summer maximum, 2050: 33,1 °Chigher than 60 % of municipalities
- Flood-prone area (100-year): 37,5%higher than 99 % of municipalities
- Area burnt 2016-2026: 0,0%lower than 64 % of municipalities
- Water stress 2050 (0-5): 4,3lower than 59 % of municipalities
Position among the 8.217 municipalities: further right means more risk. These are figures for the municipality as a whole, the same for everyone; they may differ from those for the typical building. Compare with others →
What we found in Toral de los Guzmanes
It comes from matching each building with its neighbourhood, its street, the nearest watercourse and its surroundings.
How many homes are at high risk, today and in 2050
The 360 homes in Toral de los Guzmanes by the level of their building. Tap a hazard to see it on the map.
For the town council and for residents
For the town council and its technical staff
- Review with the river basin authority the watercourses with no official mapping that run next to homes, and keep them clear.
- Download the tables by area, neighbourhood, street and watercourse (Data tab) to cross-check them with urban planning.
For residents
- If you live on a ground floor or have a garage next to a watercourse, have a plan: where to go upstairs, what to switch off and how to hear about warnings.
- Look up your building: the free report gives its level for each hazard, and the Climate Note gives the full detail.
Toral de los Guzmanes compared with other municipalities
The same data for all 8.217 municipalities in Spain. Choose what to compare with: municipalities of a similar size, the province, the region or the whole of Spain.
Compared with the 5.066 municipalities with fewer than 1.000 inhabitants. The bar shows where Toral de los Guzmanes stands: further right means more risk.
| Indicator | Toral de los Guzmanes | Group median | Position |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tropical nights a year, today | 0 nights | 0 nights | lower than 66 % of them |
| Tropical nights a year, 2050 | 1 nights | 2 nights | lower than 70 % of them |
| Average summer maximum, 2050 | 33,1 °C | 32,4 °C | higher than 64 % of them |
| Night-time heat island | −0,2 °C | 0,0 °C | lower than 68 % of them |
| Flood-prone area (100-year) | 37,5% | 0,1% | higher than 99 % of them |
| Area burnt 2016-2026 | 0,0% | 0,0% | lower than 61 % of them |
| Water stress 2050 (0-5) | 4,3 | 4,6 | lower than 60 % of them |
| Maximum 50-year gust | 31 m/s | 31 m/s | lower than 53 % of them |
| Ground movement | 0,1 mm/yr | −0,4 mm/yr | sinking more slowly than 75 % of them |
| Population aged 65 or over | 38% | 34% | higher than 65 % of them |
Compared with the 215 municipalities in León province. The bar shows where Toral de los Guzmanes stands: further right means more risk.
| Indicator | Toral de los Guzmanes | Group median | Position |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tropical nights a year, today | 0 nights | 0 nights | higher than 50 % of them |
| Tropical nights a year, 2050 | 1 nights | 0 nights | higher than 90 % of them |
| Average summer maximum, 2050 | 33,1 °C | 30,4 °C | higher than 96 % of them |
| Night-time heat island | −0,2 °C | 0,1 °C | lower than 74 % of them |
| Flood-prone area (100-year) | 37,5% | 2,2% | higher than 94 % of them |
| Area burnt 2016-2026 | 0,0% | 0,0% | lower than 73 % of them |
| Water stress 2050 (0-5) | 4,3 | 4,3 | higher than 62 % of them |
| Maximum 50-year gust | 31 m/s | 31 m/s | lower than 54 % of them |
| Ground movement | 0,1 mm/yr | −0,6 mm/yr | sinking more slowly than 89 % of them |
| Population aged 65 or over | 38% | 39% | lower than 53 % of them |
Compared with the 2.298 municipalities in Castile and León. The bar shows where Toral de los Guzmanes stands: further right means more risk.
| Indicator | Toral de los Guzmanes | Group median | Position |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tropical nights a year, today | 0 nights | 0 nights | lower than 51 % of them |
| Tropical nights a year, 2050 | 1 nights | 1 nights | higher than 51 % of them |
| Average summer maximum, 2050 | 33,1 °C | 32,2 °C | higher than 78 % of them |
| Night-time heat island | −0,2 °C | 0,0 °C | lower than 67 % of them |
| Flood-prone area (100-year) | 37,5% | 0,2% | higher than 99 % of them |
| Area burnt 2016-2026 | 0,0% | 0,0% | lower than 60 % of them |
| Water stress 2050 (0-5) | 4,3 | 4,7 | lower than 66 % of them |
| Maximum 50-year gust | 31 m/s | 33 m/s | lower than 75 % of them |
| Ground movement | 0,1 mm/yr | −0,6 mm/yr | sinking more slowly than 86 % of them |
| Population aged 65 or over | 38% | 38% | higher than 50 % of them |
Compared with the 8.217 municipalities in Spain. The bar shows where Toral de los Guzmanes stands: further right means more risk.
| Indicator | Toral de los Guzmanes | Group median | Position |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tropical nights a year, today | 0 nights | 0 nights | lower than 74 % of them |
| Tropical nights a year, 2050 | 1 nights | 8 nights | lower than 76 % of them |
| Average summer maximum, 2050 | 33,1 °C | 32,4 °C | higher than 60 % of them |
| Night-time heat island | −0,2 °C | 0,1 °C | lower than 75 % of them |
| Flood-prone area (100-year) | 37,5% | 0,6% | higher than 99 % of them |
| Area burnt 2016-2026 | 0,0% | 0,0% | lower than 64 % of them |
| Water stress 2050 (0-5) | 4,3 | 4,6 | lower than 59 % of them |
| Maximum 50-year gust | 31 m/s | 31 m/s | higher than 53 % of them |
| Ground movement | 0,1 mm/yr | −0,4 mm/yr | sinking more slowly than 77 % of them |
| Population aged 65 or over | 38% | 28% | higher than 77 % of them |
Values for the municipality as a whole (median over built-up land). The position is the percentage of municipalities in the group with a lower value: it is not a probability of damage. 2050 = SSP3-7.0 scenario.
Neighbouring municipalities
- Villademor de la Vegadetailed profile289 inhab. · 1 tropical nights in 2050 · 14,8 % flood-prone
- Algadefedetailed profile312 inhab. · 1 tropical nights in 2050 · 45,4 % flood-prone
- San Millán de los Caballerosdetailed profile191 inhab. · 0 tropical nights in 2050 · 19,4 % flood-prone
- Villaornate y Castrodetailed profile348 inhab. · 1 tropical nights in 2050 · 6,5 % flood-prone
- Villamandosdetailed profile272 inhab. · 1 tropical nights in 2050 · 37,7 % flood-prone
- Laguna de Negrillosdetailed profile1.056 inhab. · 1 tropical nights in 2050 · 20,3 % flood-prone
- Valencia de Don Juandetailed profile5.103 inhab. · 1 tropical nights in 2050 · 17,6 % flood-prone
- Villabrazdetailed profile82 inhab. · 1 tropical nights in 2050 · 0,0 % flood-prone
Download the data
Semicolon-separated tables with a decimal comma, ready to open in a spreadsheet or a GIS (areas include longitude and latitude).
- zonas.csv · each 250 m area with at least 3 buildings: average score and % at high level for each hazard, today and 2050
- calles.csv · the 0 streets with at least 60 homes
- cauces.csv · rivers, gullies and irrigation channels: homes within 50 and 100 m and in a flood zone
- Municipality summary (in Spanish) and PDF report
What this is and what it is not. It is a guide-only analysis made with public data and models, with the same rules for every municipality. It does not replace official maps, a technical study or emergency plans. For your own building, look up its report.
How we did it
Building by building. We have scored the 520 Cadastre buildings in Toral de los Guzmanes with the same rules as each building’s report on Mi Riesgo Climático, from 0 to 100 for each hazard: low (up to 25), medium (up to 50), high (up to 75) and very high.
Aggregates only. To protect each owner, no individual building appears here: only 250 m areas with at least 3 buildings, and neighbourhoods and streets with at least 60 homes.
Wildfire and flooding. Wildfire counts proximity to woodland or scrubland of at least 100 ha (not urban parks or tree-lined streets). For flooding, besides the official flood zones, a building that was inside a real flood observed by satellite (Copernicus EMS, such as the 2024 DANA storm) is at least at high level.
2050. Average for 2041-2070 under an intermediate-to-high emissions scenario (SSP3-7.0). Tropical nights and heat change with the climate; flooding, wildfire, wind and ground movement are shown with current data when there is no projection.
Rivers and streams. Named watercourses from OpenStreetMap. We count the homes less than 50 and 100 m from the watercourse and, separately, how many of them are in an official flood zone (SNCZI). Being close does not mean they will flood, and having no official zone does not mean they cannot.
Neighbourhoods and streets. Neighbourhoods and districts from OpenStreetMap; streets according to the Cadastre address. The street heat index combines tropical nights in 2050 (35 %), heat island (30 %), lack of trees (20 %) and buildings from before 1980 (15 %).
Sources. Cadastre (buildings and addresses); ERA5 + CHELSA/CMIP6 MPI-ESM1-2-HR and AdapteCCa (tropical nights and temperature); Landsat 8/9 and MODIS (heat island); ESA WorldCover and EFFIS (wildfire); MITECO SNCZI (flood zones); JRC (coast); ERA5 + Global Wind Atlas (wind); Copernicus EGMS (ground movement); WRI Aqueduct (water); INE (population); OpenStreetMap, © contributors, ODbL (streets, neighbourhoods, rivers and facilities).