We have scored the climate risk of the 1.400 buildings in Astigarraga using Cadastre data, satellite imagery and climate projections, and added it up by area, street and watercourse. Water is the biggest factor: 1.705 homes are in a flood zone.
Level of the highest hazard in each 250 m area by 2050: flooding, heat, wildfire, wind or ground movement.
Position among the 8.217 municipalities: further right means more risk. These are figures for the municipality as a whole, the same for everyone; they may differ from those for the typical building. Compare with others →
It comes from matching each building with its neighbourhood, its street, the nearest watercourse and its surroundings.
Around homes with between 10 and 20 % tree cover, the surface in summer is 5,6 °C above the median for Astigarraga; with more than 40 % tree cover, 0,3 °C below. 346 homes are in surroundings with almost no trees.
Ground surface temperature (Landsat), not air temperature. More trees usually go with less asphalt and lower density: this is a correlation, not a measure of the effect of planting trees.
They are in the area that can flood once every 500 years according to the official maps (SNCZI); 1.062 of them are in the 100-year area. Next to Galtzaur, 592 homes are inside the flood zone, less than 100 m from the watercourse.
According to the Ministry’s studies, this is an annual probability of 0,2 % (500 years) or 1 % (100 years), not “once every 500 years”: it can happen two years in a row. Small gullies are not always mapped.
These are 991 buildings right next to vegetation that can burn. Of these, 6 are blocks of flats with 154 homes, where evacuation is harder.
Proximity to woodland and to burnt areas (ESA WorldCover, EFFIS). It does not measure the state of the vegetation or any firebreaks.
In a typical building in Astigarraga, nights when the temperature stays at or above 20 °C would rise from 4 a year (1991-2020) to about 13 by 2050. For this reason, 0 % of homes would be at a high or very high level.
Median of the buildings. Intermediate-to-high emissions scenario (SSP3-7.0).
The 3.212 homes in Astigarraga by the level of their building. Tap a hazard to see it on the map.
The same data for all 8.217 municipalities in Spain. Choose what to compare with: municipalities of a similar size, the province, the region or the whole of Spain.
Compared with the 893 municipalities with between 5.000 and 20.000 inhabitants. The bar shows where Astigarraga stands: further right means more risk.
| Indicator | Astigarraga | Group median | Position |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tropical nights a year, today | 4 nights | 10 nights | lower than 62 % of them |
| Tropical nights a year, 2050 | 16 nights | 48 nights | lower than 72 % of them |
| Average summer maximum, 2050 | 25,2 °C | 32,4 °C | lower than 87 % of them |
| Night-time heat island | 0,6 °C | 0,4 °C | higher than 63 % of them |
| Flood-prone area (100-year) | 5,4% | 1,2% | higher than 80 % of them |
| Area burnt 2016-2026 | 0,0% | 0,0% | lower than 67 % of them |
| Water stress 2050 (0-5) | 2,5 | 4,8 | lower than 84 % of them |
| Maximum 50-year gust | 30 m/s | 30 m/s | higher than 52 % of them |
| Ground movement | −1,5 mm/yr | −0,6 mm/yr | sinking faster than 88 % of them |
| Population aged 65 or over | 14% | 20% | lower than 89 % of them |
Compared with the 90 municipalities in Gipuzkoa province. The bar shows where Astigarraga stands: further right means more risk.
| Indicator | Astigarraga | Group median | Position |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tropical nights a year, today | 4 nights | 1 nights | higher than 91 % of them |
| Tropical nights a year, 2050 | 16 nights | 4 nights | higher than 86 % of them |
| Average summer maximum, 2050 | 25,2 °C | 25,4 °C | lower than 57 % of them |
| Night-time heat island | 0,6 °C | 0,2 °C | higher than 94 % of them |
| Flood-prone area (100-year) | 5,4% | 0,2% | higher than 86 % of them |
| Area burnt 2016-2026 | 0,0% | 0,0% | lower than 58 % of them |
| Water stress 2050 (0-5) | 2,5 | 2,5 | lower than 53 % of them |
| Maximum 50-year gust | 30 m/s | 30 m/s | higher than 52 % of them |
| Ground movement | −1,5 mm/yr | −1,3 mm/yr | sinking faster than 75 % of them |
| Population aged 65 or over | 14% | 22% | lower than 97 % of them |
Compared with the 255 municipalities in the Basque Country. The bar shows where Astigarraga stands: further right means more risk.
| Indicator | Astigarraga | Group median | Position |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tropical nights a year, today | 4 nights | 0 nights | higher than 97 % of them |
| Tropical nights a year, 2050 | 16 nights | 4 nights | higher than 89 % of them |
| Average summer maximum, 2050 | 25,2 °C | 25,2 °C | lower than 52 % of them |
| Night-time heat island | 0,6 °C | 0,1 °C | higher than 90 % of them |
| Flood-prone area (100-year) | 5,4% | 0,1% | higher than 85 % of them |
| Area burnt 2016-2026 | 0,0% | 0,0% | lower than 57 % of them |
| Water stress 2050 (0-5) | 2,5 | 2,5 | lower than 62 % of them |
| Maximum 50-year gust | 30 m/s | 30 m/s | higher than 53 % of them |
| Ground movement | −1,5 mm/yr | −1,4 mm/yr | sinking faster than 58 % of them |
| Population aged 65 or over | 14% | 23% | lower than 98 % of them |
Compared with the 8.217 municipalities in Spain. The bar shows where Astigarraga stands: further right means more risk.
| Indicator | Astigarraga | Group median | Position |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tropical nights a year, today | 4 nights | 0 nights | higher than 66 % of them |
| Tropical nights a year, 2050 | 16 nights | 8 nights | higher than 56 % of them |
| Average summer maximum, 2050 | 25,2 °C | 32,4 °C | lower than 94 % of them |
| Night-time heat island | 0,6 °C | 0,1 °C | higher than 80 % of them |
| Flood-prone area (100-year) | 5,4% | 0,6% | higher than 84 % of them |
| Area burnt 2016-2026 | 0,0% | 0,0% | lower than 64 % of them |
| Water stress 2050 (0-5) | 2,5 | 4,6 | lower than 89 % of them |
| Maximum 50-year gust | 30 m/s | 31 m/s | lower than 57 % of them |
| Ground movement | −1,5 mm/yr | −0,4 mm/yr | sinking faster than 92 % of them |
| Population aged 65 or over | 14% | 28% | lower than 97 % of them |
Values for the municipality as a whole (median over built-up land). The position is the percentage of municipalities in the group with a lower value: it is not a probability of damage. 2050 = SSP3-7.0 scenario.
Semicolon-separated tables with a decimal comma, ready to open in a spreadsheet or a GIS (areas include longitude and latitude).
What this is and what it is not. It is a guide-only analysis made with public data and models, with the same rules for every municipality. It does not replace official maps, a technical study or emergency plans. For your own building, look up its report.
Building by building. We have scored the 1.400 Cadastre buildings in Astigarraga with the same rules as each building’s report on Mi Riesgo Climático, from 0 to 100 for each hazard: low (up to 25), medium (up to 50), high (up to 75) and very high.
Aggregates only. To protect each owner, no individual building appears here: only 250 m areas with at least 3 buildings, and neighbourhoods and streets with at least 60 homes.
Wildfire and flooding. Wildfire counts proximity to woodland or scrubland of at least 100 ha (not urban parks or tree-lined streets). For flooding, besides the official flood zones, a building that was inside a real flood observed by satellite (Copernicus EMS, such as the 2024 DANA storm) is at least at high level.
2050. Average for 2041-2070 under an intermediate-to-high emissions scenario (SSP3-7.0). Tropical nights and heat change with the climate; flooding, wildfire, wind and ground movement are shown with current data when there is no projection.
Rivers and streams. Named watercourses from OpenStreetMap. We count the homes less than 50 and 100 m from the watercourse and, separately, how many of them are in an official flood zone (SNCZI). Being close does not mean they will flood, and having no official zone does not mean they cannot.
Neighbourhoods and streets. Neighbourhoods and districts from OpenStreetMap; streets according to the Cadastre address. The street heat index combines tropical nights in 2050 (35 %), heat island (30 %), lack of trees (20 %) and buildings from before 1980 (15 %).
Sources. Cadastre (buildings and addresses); ERA5 + CHELSA/CMIP6 MPI-ESM1-2-HR and AdapteCCa (tropical nights and temperature); Landsat 8/9 and MODIS (heat island); ESA WorldCover and EFFIS (wildfire); MITECO SNCZI (flood zones); JRC (coast); ERA5 + Global Wind Atlas (wind); Copernicus EGMS (ground movement); WRI Aqueduct (water); INE (population); OpenStreetMap, © contributors, ODbL (streets, neighbourhoods, rivers and facilities).