We have scored the climate risk of the 1.289 buildings in El Arenal using Cadastre data, satellite imagery and climate projections, and added it up by area, street and watercourse. The clearest change comes at night: from 2 to 24 tropical nights a year by 2050.
Level of the highest hazard in each 250 m area by 2050: flooding, heat, wildfire, wind or ground movement.
Position among the 8.217 municipalities: further right means more risk. These are figures for the municipality as a whole, the same for everyone; they may differ from those for the typical building. Compare with others →
It comes from matching each building with its neighbourhood, its street, the nearest watercourse and its surroundings.
These are 729 buildings right next to vegetation that can burn. Almost all are houses (680), on the edges of the town and in housing estates.
Proximity to woodland and to burnt areas (ESA WorldCover, EFFIS). It does not measure the state of the vegetation or any firebreaks.
In a typical building in El Arenal, nights when the temperature stays at or above 20 °C would rise from 2 a year (1991-2020) to about 24 by 2050. For this reason, 0 % of homes would be at a high or very high level.
Median of the buildings. Intermediate-to-high emissions scenario (SSP3-7.0).
The 1.230 homes in El Arenal by the level of their building. Tap a hazard to see it on the map.
The same data for all 8.217 municipalities in Spain. Choose what to compare with: municipalities of a similar size, the province, the region or the whole of Spain.
Compared with the 5.066 municipalities with fewer than 1.000 inhabitants. The bar shows where El Arenal stands: further right means more risk.
| Indicator | El Arenal | Group median | Position |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tropical nights a year, today | 0 nights | 0 nights | lower than 66 % of them |
| Tropical nights a year, 2050 | 5 nights | 2 nights | higher than 61 % of them |
| Average summer maximum, 2050 | 30,4 °C | 32,4 °C | lower than 74 % of them |
| Night-time heat island | 2,5 °C | 0,0 °C | higher than 100 % of them |
| Flood-prone area (100-year) | 0,0% | 0,1% | lower than 76 % of them |
| Area burnt 2016-2026 | 23,5% | 0,0% | higher than 96 % of them |
| Water stress 2050 (0-5) | 4,3 | 4,6 | lower than 62 % of them |
| Maximum 50-year gust | 23 m/s | 31 m/s | lower than 98 % of them |
| Population aged 65 or over | 37% | 34% | higher than 61 % of them |
Compared with the 248 municipalities in Ávila province. The bar shows where El Arenal stands: further right means more risk.
| Indicator | El Arenal | Group median | Position |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tropical nights a year, today | 0 nights | 0 nights | lower than 55 % of them |
| Tropical nights a year, 2050 | 5 nights | 2 nights | higher than 86 % of them |
| Average summer maximum, 2050 | 30,4 °C | 31,2 °C | lower than 66 % of them |
| Night-time heat island | 2,5 °C | 0,0 °C | higher than 98 % of them |
| Flood-prone area (100-year) | 0,0% | 0,0% | lower than 71 % of them |
| Area burnt 2016-2026 | 23,5% | 0,0% | higher than 91 % of them |
| Water stress 2050 (0-5) | 4,3 | 5,0 | lower than 67 % of them |
| Maximum 50-year gust | 23 m/s | 30 m/s | lower than 98 % of them |
| Population aged 65 or over | 37% | 38% | lower than 54 % of them |
Compared with the 2.298 municipalities in Castile and León. The bar shows where El Arenal stands: further right means more risk.
| Indicator | El Arenal | Group median | Position |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tropical nights a year, today | 0 nights | 0 nights | lower than 51 % of them |
| Tropical nights a year, 2050 | 5 nights | 1 nights | higher than 97 % of them |
| Average summer maximum, 2050 | 30,4 °C | 32,2 °C | lower than 74 % of them |
| Night-time heat island | 2,5 °C | 0,0 °C | higher than 100 % of them |
| Flood-prone area (100-year) | 0,0% | 0,2% | lower than 77 % of them |
| Area burnt 2016-2026 | 23,5% | 0,0% | higher than 96 % of them |
| Water stress 2050 (0-5) | 4,3 | 4,7 | lower than 72 % of them |
| Maximum 50-year gust | 23 m/s | 33 m/s | lower than 100 % of them |
| Population aged 65 or over | 37% | 38% | lower than 54 % of them |
Compared with the 8.217 municipalities in Spain. The bar shows where El Arenal stands: further right means more risk.
| Indicator | El Arenal | Group median | Position |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tropical nights a year, today | 0 nights | 0 nights | lower than 74 % of them |
| Tropical nights a year, 2050 | 5 nights | 8 nights | lower than 53 % of them |
| Average summer maximum, 2050 | 30,4 °C | 32,4 °C | lower than 72 % of them |
| Night-time heat island | 2,5 °C | 0,1 °C | higher than 100 % of them |
| Flood-prone area (100-year) | 0,0% | 0,6% | lower than 80 % of them |
| Area burnt 2016-2026 | 23,5% | 0,0% | higher than 96 % of them |
| Water stress 2050 (0-5) | 4,3 | 4,6 | lower than 61 % of them |
| Maximum 50-year gust | 23 m/s | 31 m/s | lower than 98 % of them |
| Population aged 65 or over | 37% | 28% | higher than 75 % of them |
Values for the municipality as a whole (median over built-up land). The position is the percentage of municipalities in the group with a lower value: it is not a probability of damage. 2050 = SSP3-7.0 scenario.
Semicolon-separated tables with a decimal comma, ready to open in a spreadsheet or a GIS (areas include longitude and latitude).
What this is and what it is not. It is a guide-only analysis made with public data and models, with the same rules for every municipality. It does not replace official maps, a technical study or emergency plans. For your own building, look up its report.
Building by building. We have scored the 1.289 Cadastre buildings in El Arenal with the same rules as each building’s report on Mi Riesgo Climático, from 0 to 100 for each hazard: low (up to 25), medium (up to 50), high (up to 75) and very high.
Aggregates only. To protect each owner, no individual building appears here: only 250 m areas with at least 3 buildings, and neighbourhoods and streets with at least 60 homes.
Wildfire and flooding. Wildfire counts proximity to woodland or scrubland of at least 100 ha (not urban parks or tree-lined streets). For flooding, besides the official flood zones, a building that was inside a real flood observed by satellite (Copernicus EMS, such as the 2024 DANA storm) is at least at high level.
2050. Average for 2041-2070 under an intermediate-to-high emissions scenario (SSP3-7.0). Tropical nights and heat change with the climate; flooding, wildfire, wind and ground movement are shown with current data when there is no projection.
Rivers and streams. Named watercourses from OpenStreetMap. We count the homes less than 50 and 100 m from the watercourse and, separately, how many of them are in an official flood zone (SNCZI). Being close does not mean they will flood, and having no official zone does not mean they cannot.
Neighbourhoods and streets. Neighbourhoods and districts from OpenStreetMap; streets according to the Cadastre address. The street heat index combines tropical nights in 2050 (35 %), heat island (30 %), lack of trees (20 %) and buildings from before 1980 (15 %).
Sources. Cadastre (buildings and addresses); ERA5 + CHELSA/CMIP6 MPI-ESM1-2-HR and AdapteCCa (tropical nights and temperature); Landsat 8/9 and MODIS (heat island); ESA WorldCover and EFFIS (wildfire); MITECO SNCZI (flood zones); JRC (coast); ERA5 + Global Wind Atlas (wind); Copernicus EGMS (ground movement); WRI Aqueduct (water); INE (population); OpenStreetMap, © contributors, ODbL (streets, neighbourhoods, rivers and facilities).